In the early hours of May 12, Bitcoin completed the third block reward halving. After that, the data on the chain and the transition state of the market can be described as “calm”, but in calm, the market also shows some more obvious changes. trend.
After Bitcoin halved on May 12, the price of the currency fell slightly. Surprisingly, this downward trend did not continue. According to OKEx spot price data, by May 14th, the currency price quickly recovered and touched $ 9,900, achieving a 15% increase in three days. After that, the bitcoin price showed a steady trend, achieving a 10.36% increase last week, after which the price basically remained Above $ 9,500.
At this point, the bitcoin price recovered the lost ground caused by the 3.12 plunge, and the currency price reproduced the sign of “Mavericks” at the beginning of the year. An industry practitioner once stated that “no asset in the world can quickly recover in the short term after the price has shrunk by nearly half. Except Bitcoin “.
The relatively stable currency price and the basically stable computing power of the entire network have consolidated investor confidence, and the prediction that the currency price will rise (halving the market price) within half a year to one year after the halving has driven the market to see more bullish sentiment. According to Decrypt reports, bitcoin trading volume reached 2.5 billion US dollars on May 18, the highest since this year; OKEx data shows that bitcoin futures maintain a premium on spot.
In the “anti-globalization” and economic downtrend under the influence of the new crown, Bitcoin showed stronger resistance and independence compared to the traditional stock market. Bitcoin price performance is more and more inclined to the safe-haven asset gold; foreign media The Block reported that the correlation between Bitcoin and S & P 500 has decreased from 0.53 on April 16 to 0.15 on May 14, and the correlation value is close to 0 It means that bitcoin is independent of the stock market.
The short-term impact of bitcoin mining reward halving on mining is also reflected.
Bitinfochats information shows that the computing power of the entire Bitcoin network has fallen sharply after reaching a historical high of 137.57E on the eve of halving on May 11, and dropped to a low of 85.71E on May 17. The speed of currency transaction verification slowed down and transaction fees soared.
According to BTC.com data, the current Bitcoin network transaction verification speed is 3.62 transactions per second, which is almost half of the previous 7 transactions per second. The current network has accumulated more than 41300 transactions that have not been verified. Since then, the number of unconfirmed transactions on the Bitcoin chain has increased significantly.
The reduced transaction verification speed means that users have to pay more processing fees to ensure that transactions are verified in a timely manner. Cointelegraph reported that from April 11 to May 14, Bitcoin transaction fees increased from $ 0.38 to $ 5.16, an increase of more than 12.5 times, and the average cost of executing transactions on the Bitcoin network increased by 8 times in just one month the above.
Thanks to the increase in transaction fees, the loss suffered by miners due to the halving of block rewards has been compensated to some extent. On May 16, bitcoin transaction fees accounted for 17% of miners’ income, the highest percentage since January 2017.
With the advent of the abundant water period in May, Sichuan announced the first batch of hydropower consumption demonstration enterprises and the new generation of high-performance mining machines such as S19 series and M30 series to enter the market. The mining industry is very likely to enter a new round of computing power competition after the current buffer period. In fact, the emergent mining forces such as Lubian seem to have hinted the possibility of subsequent changes in the mining pattern.
OKEx wrote in a research report on May 18: According to Glassnode data, the number of bitcoins held by the exchange has declined significantly in the past few months.From mid-March to May, there were more than 300,000 bitcoins from The exchange proposed to the wallet, which means that investors will transfer the bitcoin bought from the exchange to the wallet, which can reduce some of the market selling pressure, and also implies the long-term hoarding action of the giant whale.
Financial blogger BeatleNews made a similar point, “Since March 13 (in the past two months), the BTC balance in the wallet addresses of mainstream exchanges has fallen by 11.5%, and since April 23 (in the past month or so), The amount of addresses with a balance greater than 1000 BTC increased by 2.24%, and the giant whale is attracting funds. ”
Among many giant whales, Gray Identity and Square, an American mobile payment company, have known identities and have recently attracted much attention. The institutions that the currency circle has been expecting to enter the market have clues to these two companies.
Twitter user ListedReserve tweeted in May this year that 52.56% of the new bitcoin in the entire network in the first quarter of this year flowed into Grayscale Investment and Square’s mobile app Cash App. The two companies absorbed the new bitcoin. The proportion reached 29.41% and 23.15% respectively.
According to network information, as of May 17, the number of BTC held by Grayscale Investment has exceeded 340,000. In the past month, Grayscale has increased its holdings of 1280 Bitcoins per day on average. Block Rhythm wrote in a related report: “Given that 88% of the trust users of Grayscale Investment are institutional users, this may become an optimistic indicator for judging how institutional users view Bitcoin. Bitcoin is moving in a better direction. . ”
Xiong Yue, Dean of the Coin Research Institute, recently stated on Weibo that “the development of bitcoin has just entered the stage of institutionalization”. At present, the giant whale represented by the organization to increase its shareholding of bitcoin seems to have become a positive signal recognized by many practitioners.
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