Expectations for Eth 2.0 are high, but worry is still there.
6 days ago (13:00 on November 19), the ETH deposited in the pledge contract of the ETH2.0 beacon chain only accounted for 19.58% of the total target (524288ETH). At this time, 15 days have passed since the release of the deposit contract address of the beacon chain, but the progress of the mortgage is not as optimistic as people imagined. Even on the decentralized forecasting platform Polymarket, punters estimate that the probability that the ETH 2.0 beacon chain will be launched on time is only 39%.
As of yesterday (November 24), the data showed that the deposit contract of the Ethereum 2.0 beacon chain had stored 524,288 Ethereum, and the threshold for the start of the beacon chain has been officially reached, which means that the Ethereum 2.0 credit creation The genesis block of Standard Chain will be mined on the scheduled December 1st.
Regarding why the number of Ethereum mortgages in the beacon chain deposit contract will grow so fast in just 5 days from November 19th to November 24th, various media have given different speculations, such as thinking that Uniswap liquidity The end of mining resulted in part of the ETH entering the mortgage. But these speculations are not supported by strong data.
In my opinion, the biggest reason may come from the recent surge in Bitcoin, which has led people to generally favor Ethereum and thus buy a large amount of ETH from the market for mortgage.
The figure below is the price chart of Ethereum from November 18th to November 25th.
Perhaps it was precisely when people bought a large amount of Ethereum to participate in mortgages that led to the skyrocketing of Ethereum during this time.
Although the threshold for the start of the Ethereum 2.0 beacon chain has been reached, if we carefully observe the atmosphere and news in the circle, we will find that there are still not many people involved in mortgages even in the circle so far. The focus of people’s attention now is only which coins are skyrocketing, and they have not shifted their focus to the mortgage activities of the beacon chain.
At present, not many merchants have launched mortgage services on the beacon chain, and even the three major exchanges have not yet made large-scale publicity and intervention. The reason for this is that, in my opinion, it is not that the merchants ignore this, but that the hidden risks of mortgage make everyone still have certain doubts.
Because the ETH mortgaged into the beacon chain will not be withdrawn for at least 1 to 2 years, and the roadmap of Ethereum 2.0 has recently undergone major changes. Although this change will generally accelerate the implementation of Ethereum 2.0, this Changes have also added a bit of uncertainty to the future of Ethereum 2.0.
Moreover, the current price of Ethereum has risen to $600. For individuals who wish to run a node, they need 32 Ethereum to participate in the mortgage. At the current price, the total value is 19,200 U.S. dollars, which is more than 120,000 RMB. .
Therefore, no matter from the perspective of merchants or from the perspective of individual node operations, everyone has reservations about this and is still waiting and watching.
I estimate that by December 1st, after the beacon chain is officially launched and continues to run for a period of time, if there are no major problems and no major accidents, then merchants and potential participants will begin to build confidence in the beacon chain and participate with confidence. Mortgage, then the mortgage activities of the beacon chain will really kick off.
I will continue to follow up, and after December 1, I will look at the follow-up development and share my views with you.