Thinking and analysis of Filecoin project


Is Filecoin worth investing now?
Many of our readers have recently asked these two questions:

1. I hold a lot of XXX (some public chains that support smart contracts). Should I replace it?

2. I have been following Filecoin, can I start investing now?

Today I will share with you my views on these two issues.

1. I hold a lot of XXX (some public chains that support smart contracts). Should I replace it?

I have publicly stated my views in articles many times this year: In the public chain that supports smart contracts, I think Ethereum is the only winner at the moment, and it is still very likely to be the only winner in the future.

So in the two years of 2017 and 2018, the so-called “Ethereum killers”, which were accompanied by the concept of public chain, especially in the ICO, are destined to be out in my opinion.

There is probably only one reason why investors are still reluctant to give up on a yellow flower that has been out of the market yesterday: I hope to “squeeze out” its last bit of “residual value” as much as possible before throwing it away-to throw it at least and wait for its price as much as possible Throw it higher.

Based on this kind of thinking, many investors will look forward to: Can these project tokens return to the XX price? Can it rebound in the next bull market? Will the project team increase the price of the currency?

In fact, this is all self-comforting, unwillingness to face reality.

The market is always volatile, and prices often deviate from the value. From this point of view, the currency prices of these projects are entirely possible to rebound, but in the general trend, the prices of these currencies are all the way down. The so-called rebound is only occasional. It’s just a small wave. Moreover, even if the currency price does rebound, it is very likely that this rebound is only the last bounce back, but many investors will think that this is the beginning of the rebound and hope that it will continue to rebound and miss this last cash opportunity.

Therefore, for many investors, they are reluctant to sell now, and he may still be reluctant to sell when they rebound in the future, and eventually watch the currency price in their hands return to zero step by step.

My operation is: as long as it is determined that a coin no longer has long-term value, it will not be retained for a minute, and it will be sold immediately, regardless of its future price.

2. I have been following Filecoin, can I start investing now?

Filecoin has always been the focus of my attention and I have always placed hope, but hope is hope. Investment is bought with real money, not with money to buy feelings. Therefore, our investment must be absolutely rational and make decisions based on the objective development of the project. .

After Filecoin’s independent online launch, disturbances continued. Now miners are still unable to mine at full capacity due to insufficient tokens for collateral. Many miners are quite dissatisfied with this. As far as the matter is concerned, although this approach of the project party did not violate the rules, the design of the mechanism was not thoughtful and hurt the enthusiasm of the ecological participants. This is certainly not a good thing for the future development of the project.

What I am even more worried about is whether the problem of imperfect mechanism design like this will continue to appear in the future, thus further hurting the enthusiasm of participants? But as I wrote in the previous article, this project is the best project in existing decentralized storage, and it represents the highest level in this field. Therefore, the project is currently affected by these two contradictory factors simultaneously. In this case, what will the future development of the project look like?

I must be very cautious. Due to the existence of negative factors, I think that the current currency price is still high, so I will not start buying tokens now; in addition, due to the existence of positive factors, I will continue to pay attention to the follow-up development of the project, and still be right. It is hopeful to see if the project has a turnaround.

For investors who have now obtained Filecoin tokens, I suggest that they can sell some of them first to reduce some risks.

If we take our attention away from this project and look at the entire currency circle, we will find that besides the slightly higher prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, there are a large number of valuable project token prices in other fields (such as DeFi). Very low, we don’t necessarily have to stare at this project, and venture into it when its future is uncertain.


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